Dangote now supplies 92% of petrol as FG pauses imports

Recent reports from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) indicate a major shift in Nigeria’s fuel landscape. As of March 2026, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery has become the dominant supplier of petrol in the country.

Key Highlights
Market Dominance: In February 2026, domestic refining—primarily from the Dangote facility—accounted for approximately 92% of Nigeria’s daily petrol supply.


Import Pause: The Federal Government has effectively paused new petrol imports. Multiple sources at the NMDPRA confirmed that no new import licenses have been issued this year, as local production is now deemed sufficient to meet national requirements.


Drastic Drop in Volume: Petrol imports plummeted from roughly 24.8 million litres per day in January to just 3 million litres per day in February.


Pricing Adjustments: Despite the supply shift, pump prices have remained volatile due to global crude oil costs. However, as of March 10, 2026, the Dangote Refinery announced a N100 reduction in its gantry price, bringing it down to N1,075 per litre to reflect changes in the global market.

Comparison of Petrol Supply (Feb 2026)SourceDaily Volume (Litres)Percentage Share
Domestic (Dangote)36.5 Million~92%
Imports3.0 Million~8%
Total Supply39.5 Million100%

The NMDPRA noted that while the reliance on imports has reached a nine-year low, the overall daily supply has also decreased compared to January, partly due to the sharp reduction in imported volumes.


Would you like me to look into how this shift is affecting transportation costs or inflation rates in Nigeria?

The shift to 92% local supply has created a complex economic situation. While the refinery acts as a "buffer" against total import dependency, the immediate impact on your pocket depends on whether global oil prices are stable or spiking.

Here is the breakdown of how this is hitting transportation and inflation as of March 2026:

1. The "Buffer" Effect on Inflation
Until recently, Nigeria’s inflation was on a steady downward trend, hitting a five-year low of 15.1% in January 2026. However, new global tensions in the Middle East have sent crude prices surging toward $100–$120 per barrel.

Absorption Strategy: To prevent a massive spike in local prices, the Dangote Refinery is currently absorbing about 20% of the cost escalation internally.

Insulation: Experts suggest that without this domestic refining, petrol prices could have already soared past N1,500 per litre.

Forecast: Despite the local supply, economists at United Capital and the CPPE warn that if global oil prices stay high, inflation could reverse its downward trend as energy costs remain the primary driver of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

2. Impact on Transportation Costs
Even with the refinery’s recent N100 price cut (bringing gantry prices to N1,075), commuters and transport operators are still feeling the squeeze.

Retail Lag: Although gantry prices dropped, many retail filling stations are still selling petrol between N1,250 and N1,350 per litre as they exhaust older, more expensive stock.

Operating Hardship: Transport operators report that filling a standard commercial bus tank now costs approximately N25,000, leading to immediate fare hikes in major hubs like Lagos and Abuja.

Diesel Surge: Diesel (AGO) prices have hit roughly N1,430–N1,725 per litre, which is driving up the cost of long-haul logistics for food and manufacturing.

3. Government Response: The CNG Push
Because petrol prices are now tied to global benchmarks rather than fixed subsidies, the Federal Government is pivoting to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) to lower transport costs.

Action Plan: President Tinubu has ordered the immediate rollout of 100,000 CNG conversion kits nationwide.

Cost Benefit: CNG is being marketed as a significantly cheaper alternative to petrol, intended specifically to cushion the blow for commercial transporters and reduce the "inflationary ripple" on food prices.

Metric Status (March 2026) Impact
Headline Inflation ~15.1% (Jan) Projected to rise slightly due to energy costs.
Petrol Pump Price N1,250 – N1,350 Increasing transport fares by 20–30% in some areas.
Diesel Price N1,430 – N1,725 Raising costs for food logistics and factory power.