Edo poll: How new voters may affect political calculations

The numbers that the Independent National Electoral Commission issued for the Edo State governorship race, which are primarily made up of young people, show where the political parties running for office should focus their efforts in order to get support, as ADEYINKA ADEDIPE writes.

The Edo State governorship election is quickly approaching, thus voters turned out in force to participate in the Continuous Voters Registration event, which was held from May 27 to June 9. The election umpire ultimately deemed the exercise a success despite its original deadline of June 5th. The high turnout of potential voters prompted the Independent National Electoral Commission to extend the registration process.

Those who have registered earlier had the opportunity to pick up their PVCs from the unclaimed 373,030 in possession of the INEC, while those hoping to change their polling units had the chance to do so.

The CVR exercise was akin to killing two beds with a stone, despite misgivings by some political parties who were not sure that the arrangement put in place by the electoral commission for the CVR exercise would produce the best results.
The CVR concluded amicably, and INEC said that 119,206 new registrants had registered, despite concerns and attacks in certain locations regarding allegations that a specific party was attempting to rig the procedure. According to the figure, a higher proportion of young people would vote in the gubernatorial race.

According to INEC data, the following is the breakdown of registration in each Local Government Area: Akoko Edo: 5,807 (4.87 percent); Etsako East: 6,383 (5.35 percent); Etsako West: 8,245 (6.92 percent); Etsako Central: 5,020 (4.21 percent); Owan East: 5,980 (5.02 percent); Owan West: 5,072 (4.25 percent); Esan West: 5,168 (4.34 percent); Esan Central: 4,659 (3.91 percent); Esan North-East: 6,216 (5.21 percent); Esan South-East: 6,105 (5.12 percent); Igueben: 3,774 (3.17 per cent), Uhunmwonde: 4,133 (3.47 per cent), Egor: 8,732 (7.33 per cent), Oredo: 10,028 (8.41 per cent), Ikpoba/Okha: 10,685 (8.96 per cent), Orhionmwon: 8,561 (7.18 per cent), Ovia South-West: 5,662 (4.75 per cent) and Ovia North-East: 8,978 (7.53 per cent).
The demographics of the newly registered voters were also broken down by INEC, with young people (18–35 years old) accounting for 97,723 (81.98%), middle-aged people (36-49) for 15,409 (12.93%), the elderly (50–69) for 5,505 (4.62%), and the elderly (70+) for just 569 (0.48%).

Considering that just 600,395 of the 2,128,051 registered voters and 2,501,081 PVC voters participated in the previous year's presidential election, the 17 political parties are aware of the monumental challenge they face and have begun canvassing for votes. But, if the results of the previous year's election are any indication, the parties and their representatives must step up their efforts to reach out to the new registrants in order to prevent a repeat of the apathy that was seen in the 2023 election.

The majority of newly registered voters are young people, who have been demanding engagement in the political process as well as the opportunity to vote. In this election, they have the chance to do so and they must ensure they make a statement by casting their ballot in the election.

Though some are already seeking elective positions, others should equally come out to vote for candidates of their choice, as failing to do so means that they have to put up with whoever is elected and not blame anyone or group for any woe that befalls them later.

Although social critic Igbinobaro Odia predicted that the party that appeals to the public would win the election, the atmosphere surrounding the campaign has been tense. He stated that voters will be prepared to cast their ballots on September 21 since they were now more aware of the need of participating in the election, particularly the state's newly registered voters.

He said, "It is evident from the INEC data that a large number of people—particularly young people—participated in the CVR, demonstrating their desire to be involved in an election that will bring in a new administration for the state.

"I have no doubt that they wouldn't simply leave their homes to register without being sure to vote on Election Day. Why go for the CVR without the intention of voting? I am sure the political parties and their agents will be targeting these new registrants who may also be undecided on who to vote for. The participation of this group of persons may be key to where the pendulum of victory swings.
Of the seventeen political parties that will run in the election, the Peoples Democratic Party, the All Progressives Congress, and the Labour Party appear to be leading the pack; but, in order to secure success, the parties must also target current voters.

"Party loyalists will always vote for their preferred candidates, but party operatives can effectively solicit votes from indecisive voters," Odia continued.

The executive director of the Justice Research Centre in Benin City, Donald Inwalomhe, acknowledged that new voters would be important to the election, but he also stated that women and young people in the state's eighteen local government areas would have a significant influence on the outcome of the gubernatorial race.

He added, "The economic policies of the Federal Government led by President Bola Tinubu and the removal of fuel subsidies would determine the outcome of the September 21 election.
It's true that new voters will have a significant influence on this election, but some voters have always had a significant influence. These individuals, in my opinion, are the drivers of our democracy: the young people and women who have consistently turned out to vote for the politicians of their choosing.

The people of Edo North are angry because the Federal Government has been unable to repair and dualise the Benin-Auchi road for almost nine years, and it took President Tinubu to begin building the Lagos-Calabar coastal road without making financial arrangements.

"I also have reliable information that party leaders, one of whom was the state's deputy governor in the past, have been compelled to relocate from one polling unit to another for fear of defeat in the election. That is the power the voters have and they are willing to use it to their advantage on Election Day,” he added.
Although he was not authorised to speak on the subject, a prominent political party canvasser said that his work in the field had demonstrated that young people were prepared to cast large numbers of ballots in the election in support of a new government that would resonate with the people.

Although some of the women had been persuaded to vote for their candidates by his group, he saw that rural residents were also highly aware of the issues and that they had sworn to cast their votes in large numbers for the candidates of their choice.

It is clear that young people are eager to vote in this election. For months, my team and I have been out in the field requesting votes. Others are prepared to remain faithful to their candidates, while some are buying into our candidate's platform. We're not moving, no matter what you tell them, but we'll keep working.

"As usual, the women appear prepared once more. Most of them told me they were prepared for the election and said they would support a candidate who showed concern for their well-being. I met some new voters who are eager to make excellent use of their PVCs and I was successful in persuading some people to support my candidature.

In order to guarantee a smooth procedure, INEC has asked parties, their representatives, the electorate, and others to behave peacefully in its numerous stakeholder meetings. The electoral umpire demonstrated that it was prepared for the election when it said that copies of the voter register would be officially published on August 20 and sent to the various political parties.

At a stakeholders' meeting with leaders of political, religious, and traditional organisations, the state's resident electoral commissioner, Anugbum Onuoha, revealed this information and urged political parties to follow the rules to prevent violence.

"I want to inform the interested parties that the voter registration will be officially published on August 20 and that copies will be given to the various political parties," he stated. The campaigns started on April 24. We must monitor campaigns to ensure that the political parties play by the rules.
It became essential to have this interactive meeting in order to update the interested parties on the election's progress. The commission is prepared to provide all political parties with pertinent data in order to facilitate a free, fair, and legitimate election for the Edo governorship.

Noting that the Edo State Security Network will not be a part of the security agencies for the election, he also gave the parties assurances of a fair and impartial playing field free from compromise and partiality.

The assurance from the REC should serve as a launchpad for the parties as they continue to solicit votes from both the new and existing registrants.